Covid bulletin #40: At the peak?

Jan 14, 2021 | Sector & policy

This is the fortieth of a series of bulletins produced by ISE to update members on key data and policy on Covid-19. This bulletin covers the period 7th – 13th January 2021.

You can access all of the Covid-19 bulletins on ISE insights.

Latest Covid-19 data

Data taken from Wikipedia and from the government’s Covid-19 dashboard.

The UK has now had over 3.2 million identified Covid-19 cases and 89,243 deaths (with Covid on the death certificate). The R rate is estimated to be between 1 and 1.4 with the daily infection rate growing by 0%-6%. Some models estimate that as many as one in five people have had Covid-19.
The Office for National Statistics have released new data on the number of deaths during 2020.

Over recent days it appears that the number of new cases per-day may have peaked and that speed at which the virus is spreading may now be decreasing. However, the number of deaths continues to climb for now.

Covid news

Many people have had the second dose of the vaccine delayed as the UK focuses on vaccinating people with the first dose. But, Professor Paul Hunter argues that this is probably not a problem. There is also good news as the vaccines seem to protect against the new variants of Covid that are circulating and that immunity offered by the vaccines is likely to last a long while. But the vaccines are likely to take a long while to start having a substantial impact on the spread of the virus.
The NHS are seeking to free up beds to deal with the surge of new Covid cases.
The government now requires new arrivals to the UK to show a negative test and quarantine for 10 days.

Education

There are concerns that there are still too many children in primary schools and that numbers are in excess of the first lockdown. This has led government to revise guidance to key workers.
The government has published new expectations as to what schools should provide during lockdown. The Education Secretary advised parents to write to Ofsted if their child’s school was not providing enough work during lockdown, but this led to thousands of parents reporting that their school was doing a good job. Sam Friedman argues that the government needs a new plan to mitigate the damage of school closures.
Ofqual are exploring the format that school assessments (GCSEs and A Levels) should take this year.
There have been growing calls for university students to get rent rebates for accommodation that they cannot use during lockdown. Universities have argued that the government should pay for this.

The economy

Many businesses are struggling in the current climate. For example, passengers at Heathrow were down by 73% during 2020. George Dibb (LSE) argues that the Chancellor needs to act to save the businesses.
Many individuals are also experiencing a crisis of their personal finances under pressure of job losses, furlough and other Covid-related financial issues.
The FTSE 100 has climbed back to pre-Covid levels, although there are concerns that the bubble will burst.